Head in the Sand

I had a brief conversation with someone a few days ago about the unemployment report that came out on October 5, 2012.  Recall that the night before, President Obama took a drubbing at the first of the Presidential debates of the fall.  The numbers at face value seem to be great until you actually look at the statistics themselves.  This person did not want to acknowledge that the report itself was possibly inaccurate and simply touted it as good news economically.

The media and the liberal politicians nationwide did much the same and immediately began to pound conservatives by basically saying “look it IS working,” but let’s consider a few interesting points (Some courtesy of Market-Ticker).

  1. Supposedly about 114,000 jobs were created in one month.  The work force part of the population grew by 206,000 in one month.  The basic math is that when the base grows by more than the number of jobs added, then unemployment actually went up.
  2. The Not-in-Labor-Force number, which are working age adults that are unemployed and not looking for a job any longer (basically, the people that are giving up completely) grew by 386,000 while the number of people that came off unemployment by gaining employment was about 775,000.  That is 1,161,000 people that came off unemployment in one month.
  3. The Bureau of Labor’s most oft-reported number only counts what they deem the total unemployed (U-3) figure when it is seasonally adjusted.  The problem with this thinking is that you are considered employed if you get a job that pays minimum wage and you only work for part-time.  The more accurate number to gauge how the economy is doing is the U-6 figure, which is 14.7%.  This figure in and of itself is still somewhat flawed as it only counts people that have looked for a job in the 12 month period.  According to CNN, nearly one in three unemployed people nationwide have been out of work more than one year so they are not even factored into the unemployment rate calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  4. According to the October 2012 BLS report, there are 243,772,000 people in the workforce population nationally. One year ago, there were 240,071,000 in the workforce population.  That’s a net change of +3,701,000.  The number of employed only grew by +2,832,000 however.  So the number of jobs lagged the number of adults in the workforce by 869,000 jobs.

So the unemployment numbers went down?  If there are 869,000 more adults in the workforce than there are jobs today than one year ago AND people that have been unemployed more than one year are not counted in the unemployment figures compiled by the BLS, than how in the world can unemployment be down?  Go back to my first point – when the population grows faster than the number of jobs for the same population, unemployment rates actually go up.  I smell some intentionally bad math.

So let’s extrapolate a little here.  For the ease of math, let’s assume that the unemployment rate is actually 7.8% as that is a best case scenario.  If one in three Americans that are unemployed have been unemployed for more than a year (which means that they are not factored into the unemployment rate reported by the BLS), then the actual unemployment rate is approximately 11.7%.

Job growth is not on pace to keep up, let alone exceed workforce population growth (Breitbart).  The statistics fail to chart the long term unemployed, so the numbers “sound” better, but the overall picture is still grim.

You can bury your head in the sand and shout “7.8%!,” but if you fail to look at the whole picture, you will be mistaken.

Advertisements
Previous Post
Next Post
Leave a comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

LadyRaven's Whisky In A Jar - OH!

Coffee? Tea? Whisky! - Aspirin anyone?

Stately McDaniel Manor

Culture, Politics, Firearms, Education, Literature, Philosophy, Music, And Other Musings

High Heels and Handguns

This princess is armed- The prince can't always be there to rescue you

Sheeple: People unable to think for themselves

Here to help educate the Sheeple before the slaughter

Fellowship of the Minds

"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."

Reality Check

American Patriot's Reality Check

The Firewall

Whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends it is the right of the people to alter or abolish it

Freedom Is Just Another Word...

Rules?? What Are rules? I don't need no stinking rules!!!

Evil of indifference

"Now, we must all fear evil men. But there is another kind of evil which we must fear most, and that is the indifference of good men. " from Boondock Saints

The Radio Patriot

Because I have so many words...

Eatgrueldog

Where misinformation stops and you are force fed the truth III

Reality Of Christ

Christian, End Time, and Conspiracy News!

DAYLIGHT DISINFECTANT

DAN SANDINI'S NEWS OUTSIDE THE MAINSTREAM

WR2A: The Line In The Sand

We Are the Second Amendment, and you cannot stop that.

The Longwood Institute

A site dedicated to the appreciation of Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness along with the responsibilities these God-given unalienable rights invoke.

Ten Smiths Blog

What does the Declaration of Independence really say?

Short Little Rebel

Because loving Christ is the most rebellious thing you can do

Deaconmatson's Blog

observations from America

America: Going Full Retard...

Word: They are acting. They are creating. They are framing their reality around you. And we … we bark at the end of our leashes. Our ambition for freedumb is at the end of our leash.

%d bloggers like this: