Aggression

Today, the bellicose rhetoric coming out of North Korea has brought a new nation into the limelight.  While part of me believes that North Korea, failing to provoke the US or South Korea into something that they could then demonize or the world stage in order to leverage concessions (which is their usual approach to rhetorical confrontation), the other part of me thinks that their leadership is either wildly miscalculating the situation, or intentionally prefacing some action that they have already decided to take.  Why is a question that is impossible to answer from where I sit, but the cards on the table are growing more interesting and frightening.

First, the admission that even stunned the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was that North Korea has the technology and means to develop a ballistic-capable nuclear warhead.  This is a major, major problem.  This puts them far ahead of Iran in terms of geopolitical threat and as a destabilizing force on the world stage to any nation.  It is not a technologically challenging feat to mount a multi-stage rocket on to a seemingly benign cargo ship, sail it to within range of your target, tear away the fake hull and launch a nuclear tipped missile at your target.

They have increasingly elevated their rhetoric over the past weeks from the typical war preparation crud that they do every year or two and have openly stated the nuclear war is unavoidable.  Even the Soviets and the US at the height of the Cold War despite the thousands of nuclear and thermonuclear warheads aimed at each other were constrained by mutually assured destruction and a desire to SURVIVE and never explicitly threatened the launch and immolation of each others’ citizens, cities, infrastructure, or allies.  North Korea has done this – by explicitly naming Japan as their first target.

While some may ask if I believe this all to be words with no action to back it up?  It could be complete bluster on Pyongyang’s part.  And threatening Japan is not new to the North – they still hold a grudge over the invasion, occupation, and atrocities committed generations ago by the Imperial Japanese, but while others have forgiven and forged new ties with modern-day Japan, the North stubbornly clings to this bitterness and hate.

One of the most important lessons I have learned is that you must take into account the national culture of someone when trying to understand what makes them tick.  Chae-myun is basically what westerner’s think of as saving face in Korean.  It goes much deeper than that though in most Asian cultures.  Chae-myun is an obligation to one’s honor, to the honor of one’s family, and to the honor of one’s ancestors.  Going further, any action or behavior that could be interpreted by one as disrespectful, challenging, or confrontational towards someone (or in this case a nation) would be interpreted as an assault on that person’s (nation’s) dignity and honor.

At this point though, another aspect of chae-myun needs to be considered, and that is the directness and challenging speech emanating from North Korea is a direct threat to damage the cohesive of the Japanese-American-South Korean alliance.  Further, the North’s rhetoric is evidence of a lack of self-control and recklessness, which is paramount to maintaining the balance of mutually assured destruction as a limiting factor on the North’s behavior.  MAD relies on rational actors that genuinely are concerned about their own survival and do not wish to die in the decimation of total nuclear war (and all nuclear war is total).

So adding up all of the various threats, culture aspects, and actors involved, the North does not come across as rational in this case.  They are in possession of probably no more than a handful of nuclear bombs with the largest test yield being six kilotons of TNT equivalent.

For comparison, the bombs the US dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were between thirteen kilotons and twenty-two kilotons respectively, and just the United States alone has 650 B83 free-fall variable yield nuclear bombs with an upper yield of 1.2 megatons.  (Grand total the US as of November 2012, possesses 1,722 ready-to-deploy strategic nuclear warheads split between land-based, submarine-based, and aircraft-delivered bombs, with an estimated reserve of about 2,800 warheads, and 500 tactical yield warheads).

It’s not that North Korea is foolhardy, it’s that they’re toying with being labeled absolutely bat**** crazy.  What makes it even scarier is that crazy people are impossible to predict. 

Should we expect an attack?

Should Japan?

Never in the past have I thought so from North Korea until now.

The right to use force in self-defense arises in response to a hostile act (attack) and/or demonstrated hostile intent (threat of imminent attack).

Indicators of Hostile Intent

Aiming or directing weapons

Check

Adopting an attack profile

Check and Check

Closing within weapons release range

Check – Rodong-1 & -2, Musudan, and Taepodong-2 ballistic missiles have the range capable of striking Japan, Okinawa, and possibly the U.S. territory of Guam.

Illuminating with radar or laser designators

Not necessary with ballistic weaponry

Passing target information

Check


When I bring the sword against a land, and the people of the land choose one of their men and make him their watchman, and he sees the sword coming against the land and blows the trumpet to warn the people, then if anyone hears the trumpet but does not heed the warning and the sword comes and takes their life, their blood will be on their own head. Since they heard the sound of the trumpet but did not heed the warning, their blood will be on their own head. If they had heeded the warning, they would have saved themselves. But if the watchman sees the sword coming and does not blow the trumpet to warn the people and the sword comes and takes someone’s life, that person’s life will be taken because of their sin, but I will hold the watchman accountable for their blood.’

Ezekiel 33:2-6

 

 

Danger Close

It is always important in matters of high politics to know what you do not know. Those who think that they know, but are mistaken, and act upon their mistakes, are the most dangerous people to have in charge.

Prime Minister (UK) Margaret Thatcher

I posit that Lady Thatcher was the exact woman needed for our cousins across the stormy Atlantic to face down not just the threat of Soviet domination or annihilation, but also to maintain the dignity of the British Empire even as it’s glory had waned in comparison with that of the American superpower.  She saw the threats, took them seriously, and understand most importantly the limits of her own power and intelligence.

Today, I have noted a far too casual approach to the aggressive posturing and threats of a remnant of the old Cold War in North Korea’s continuing belligerence, provocations, and outright brazenness toward South Korea, Japan, and the United States.

Instead of confronting a madman and threatening the outright devastation and annihilation of his country in response to an attack, we are talking of a proportional response to any attack.

So if North Korea shells Seoul, killing hundreds of thousand and destroying the South’s capital, we shell Pyongyang?

If North Korea sinks a South Korean navy ship or an American ship, we sink the attacking vessel only?

What deterrent effect does such a restrained counterattack provide?

If Tokyo is laid waste by a medium range ballistic missile carrying a low yield nuclear warhead, we fire a single nuclear shot into North Korea in response?

What assurance of safety and security do the Japanese or South Koreans feel at such a “restrained” response on our part?

You do not cow a belligerent state or person into behaving by the expectations of the society at large by going tit for tat with them.  You do not expect obeisance based on limited reprisals and slaps on the wrist.  You look at North Korea – expose your biggest, baddest piece of hardware, and tell them that they are wrong, that their leader is a foolish little man, and that they – the citizens of North Korea – will suffer along with their rulers if they allow this belligerence to continue.

You sneak F-22 Raptors into their air space and buzz their field headquarters at low level, paint everything that goes into the air with targeting radars so their threat-warning indicators never stop beeping in their ears.

You sneak up a Virginia or Seawolf Class SSN into the baffles of North Korea’s most powerful, capable naval vessel and take hull photographs, then you back off and hammer their hull at close rang with full power active SONAR to let them know that they would be dead if we wanted them dead.

You land Navy SEALs and DELTA teams to go into North Korea and sabotage pieces of equipment, steal documents, and otherwise raise deniable hell by knocking out power generation, communications, and whatnot.

You use our vaunted B-2 stealth bombers to drop leaflets over the North advising them that the next overflight may contain bombs, not paper, if their leaders continue their belligerence.

You remind the North that they are not tangling with an equal.  You remind the North that they are tangling with the most technologically superior, well-trained fighting force ever fielded or sailed on the open seas and that any provocation – verbal or physical, will not be met with proportional response, but with overwhelming destructive force and significant loss of life and treasure.

Uncalled for?  Overly aggressive?

When a despot warns of war I listen.

Madmen rarely conceal their intent in advance.

Froggy

Kim Jong Un is getting froggy with South Korea and the U.S.

If North Korea unilaterally cancelled the nonaggression pact that formally “paused” the Korean War back in the 1950’s, then they are deadly serious as that formally returns the peninsula to a live state of war.

Prayers for those men and women not just in South Korea, but the U.S. servicemen there, and the souls in the North living under a godless dictator.

Interesting times indeed.

 

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